G1 Silver Chief Runner-By-Runner Analysis

HERE is our runner-by-runner form analysis with reasons why each runner can or cannot win the Silver Chief on Saturday with tips.

The Silver Chief is more than a Group 1 puppy race.

A win in the ‘Victoria Derby' of greyhound racing is not only the catalyst for a racing career, but often the foundation of a successful stud career, making a win in the 525m sprint worth a whole lot more than the $100,000 on offer the winner.

FIELDS AND FORM FOR THE MEADOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT

The 2024 edition at The Meadows is a wide-open affair with the first four in the market at $5.50 or shorter, and with a case to be made for all eight finalists.

1. Shima Steel (pictured)

Trainer: Tom Dailly

Heat time: 29.87

Why he can win: A smart heat win continued his steady improvement in recent starts. A repeat of his 5.03 first split will have him prominent early, and the inside draw – his first in 17 starts inside box 3 – is a plus.

Why he can't win: His heat win in his 23rd career start was a clear career mark and went against market expectations (started $16.20). Can he repeat it, and is it good enough if he does?

2. Rocket Riot

Trainer: Jason Thompson

Heat time: 29.98

Why he can win it: Jason Thompson has already won four Silver Chiefs (and his wife Seona also has a win). Should improve off first race start at the Meadows and has shown in his consecutive 29.61 and 29.64 wins at Wentworth Park that he has the pure ability to win this.

Why he can't win: Box 1 and the small field may have flattered last time, and given he takes  a few strides to hit top gear, the draw may be a little sticky given the speed beneath and out wide. 

3. Mepunga Shine

Trainer: Jeff Britton

Heat time: 29.92 (2nd to Shima Steel)

Why he can win: Won three in a row before running second in his heat. Has shown good early speed and is yet to lose when leading at the first split.

Why he can't win: Was unable to beat Shima Steel in a straight battle last week and Shima Steel has drawn better here.

4. Smooth Plane

Trainer: Tom Dailly

Heat time: 29.91 (2nd to Morton)

Why he can win it: Has shown glimpses of brilliance, including a 29.38 win at Sandown and a 29.88 at Geelong leading into the series. Prior to that had two starts over the middle distance, and was doing his best work late in his heat.

Why he can't win it: Doesn't have a lot of early speed meaning he will need luck at some stage to find his way through the field.

5. Morton

Trainer: Jessica Sharp

Heat time: 29.71 (best)

Why he can win: Was arguably unlucky to get a berth in The Phoenix given his recent form. Missed a place just once in 14 starts – an unlucky 4th in his fourth career start – and has a 29.55 best time at the track. Clearly fastest dog in the race.

Why he can't win: Isn't flawless at box rise and with Smooth Plane looking to use a bit of the track early, will need to beat him across by the first turn. 

6. Fernando Phil 

Trainer: Michelle Mallia

Heat time: 29.83

Why he can win: Has steadily improved with racing, culminating with three wins in his last three starts. His recent 29.25 win at Sandown Park translates well for this, and there's no reason to think he hasn't got further improvement to come.

Why he can't win: Box 6 is awkward at the best of times and may be caught in an early squeeze.

7. All Talent

Trainer: John Barbara

Heat time: 29.98

Why he can win: Is somewhat untapped given this is just his third run over 525m. Runs a straight line from the box, and given he doesn't have the early speed of those around him it may just play into his favour.

Why he can't win: Has limited experience out of restricted grade and may not have to overall speed to match his rivals.

8. Oregon Durant

Trainer: Tom Dailly

Heat time: 30.05

Why he can win: Is fit and experienced over the trip. Box 8 may keep him out of trouble of the speed comes together at the turn.

Why he can't win: Failed to break 30 seconds from consecutive red draws, it's hard to see him going fast enough to win from box 8.

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Tips:

1st – Shima Steel (1)

2nd – Morton (5)

3rd – Rocket Riot (2)

4th – Fernando Phil (6)